A Trendline and Predictive Analysis of the First-Wave COVID-19 Infections in Malta.

Following the first COVID-19 infected cases, Malta rapidly imposed strict lockdown measures, including restrictions on international travel, together with national social distancing measures, such as prohibition of public gatherings and closure of workplaces. The study aimed to elucidate the effect of the intervention and relaxation of the social distancing measures upon the infection rate by means of a trendline analysis of the daily case data. In addition, the study derived a predictive model by fitting historical data of the SARS-CoV-2 positive cases within a two-parameter Weibull distribution, whilst incorporating swab-testing rates, to forecast the infection rate at minute computational expense. The trendline analysis portrayed the wave of infection to fit within a tri-phasic pattern, where the primary phase was imposed with social measure interventions. Following the relaxation of public measures, the two latter phases transpired, where the two peaks resolved without further escalation of national measures. The derived forecasting model attained accurate predictions of the daily infected cases, attaining a high goodness-of-fit, utilising uncensored government-official infection-rate and swabbing-rate data within the first COVID-19 wave in Malta.

Adverse reactions to Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination of healthcare workers at Malta's state hospital.

BACKGROUND: The long-term control of COVID-19 depends on an effective global vaccination strategy. Protecting healthcare workers (HCWs) from serious infection is critical. Malta, a European country, initiated the vaccination roll-out using Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine targeting HCWs. This study determined vaccination adverse effects (AEs) in this cohort. METHOD: An online survey was disseminated to all HCWs via work email (29/3/21 to 9/4/21) to gather AEs regarding pain, redness and swelling at injection site, fever, chills, fatigue, muscle/joint pains, headache, vomiting and diarrhoea severity following each dose (Likert scale). Descriptive, comparative and multiple binary regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: A response of 30.30% (n = 1480) was achieved with the commonest AEs being pain at injection site (88.92% CI 95%: 87.21-90.42), mostly mild (51%) and moderate (43%). Fatigue was reported by 72.97% (CI 95%: 70.65-75.17), 42% were mild and 41% were moderate. Females reported significantly (P ≤ .05, respectively) more pain (OR: 1.90), redness (OR: 2.49), swelling at injection site (OR: 1.33), fever (OR: 1.74), chills (OR: 2.32), fatigue (OR: 2.43), muscle (OR: 1.54) and joint pains (OR: 2.01), headache (OR: 2.07) and vomiting (OR: 3.43) when adjusted for age and HCW role. Localised AEs were reported following both vaccine doses unlike systemic AEs that were mostly reported after second doses. CONCLUSION: Vaccination benefits outweigh the minor AEs experienced, with females exhibiting a higher susceptibility. The general low vaccination AEs observed within the HCW cohort is encouraging and should help in allaying vaccine hesitancy among the population.

WITHDRAWN: Needed: less influenza vaccine hesitancy and less presenteeism among health care workers in the COVID-19 era.

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Influenza vaccination in the COVID-19 era.

Influenza spreads globally annually with significant paediatric and adult attack rates and considerable morbidity, mortality and the exacerbation of extant chronic disease. In the northern and southern hemispheres, outbreaks occur mainly in the respective winter seasons. Influenza vaccination is available but only partially effective. In the absence of a vaccine, in winter, novel coronavirus COVID-19 will also circulate in parallel with seasonal influenza. Thus far it appears that with the current strains of these two viruses, the clinical outcome of co-infection is not significantly worse than infection with COVID-19 alone. However, several strains of influenza circulate, including strains still to come. Similarly, COVID-19 has several strains, with probably more to come. This paper discusses these issues and estimates ideal minimum influenza vaccination coverage based on an estimated influenza Basic Reproduction Number (R0) of 0.9-2.1 so as to obtain herd immunity or approach it. There is a strong argument for attempting near universal population coverage with the annual influenza vaccine leading up to next winter.